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TruthSage

Category: Russia

  • Diesel Prices

    20261020

    Below is a chart showing diesel prices against Ukraine’s strikes on Russia refineries and events around the US/Iran conflict.

    I have seen the chart in a number of places and it seems to be attributed to the ISW (Institute for the Study of War). I did a number of searches on their website (https://understandingwar.org) and could not find it. I also tried to search ex-Twitter because there seemed to be some indications that they had posted it there but I could not find it. That may be because I am not an ex-Twitter subscriber and my searches may be limited. However, I believe the ISW is the source of the chart.

    I will post a screen capture of the chart here (with colored rectangles that I have added) and then will explain the rectangles below the chart.

    The line that appears kind of tan or brown to me are the oil prices and the line that appears to be kind of a burgundy color to me are the number of Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries.

    So, the chart shows that even though Trump likes to try to blame Ukraine for the high oil prices and to claim that they do not have anything to do with his attack on Iran. The facts clearly show that the major contributor is Trump’s conflict with Iran.

    I love charts and believe that they can reveal things that may not be as evident just looking at a bunch of numbers. I also believe that this chart from the ISW is well done. However, reading charts is, in my opinion, part math or science but also in large part an art. I know many people who just go glassy eyed when presented with a chart. For those reasons I will present here some observations from looking at the chart that I hope will help people understand it.

    In the blue box we see that during the second half of 2025, during a period when Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries was at a relatively high level, the price of diesel stayed quite steady with a slight decrease near the end of that period.

    In the red box we can see that during the first half of 2026, during a period when Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries were lower the price of diesel increased.

    The green box shows the period in which the diesel prices rose, which also happens to be the period during which the US conflict with Iran occurs. The two sharpest rises come right after Trump attacked Iran and then again after Trump resumed large-scale attacks on Iran after a bit of a ceasefire.

    The purple box shows how, during the period of general rise outlined by the green box, there was a period where the diesel price started falling back down. That retreat in the diesel prices corresponds with the limited ceasefire and reverses and starts rising again as the ceasefire appeared to be falling apart.

    It is clear that Ukraine is not responsible for the rise in diesel prices and that Trump is very directly responsible.

    Those are my observations. I hope that helps.

  • Russian Army Could Collapse

    20261018

    I have been wanting to write this post for more than a year. The signs have been subtle but they have been there and they have been growing, certainly in 2026 but even before that.

    It is quite possible that the Russian Military, the Russian Armed Forces, will collapse. (Throughout the rest of this post I will mostly just call it the Russian Army. The term, as used here, refers to all branches of the Russian military but especially the Army.)

    According to an AI search, “military collapses often occur when logistical failures, morale erosion, or loss of external support reach a tipping point, causing large, equipped forces to vanish or rout rapidly.”

    Some examples of armies “suddenly” collapsing are listed below. It is worth noting that in many cases they were the bigger army considered to be more powerful and to whom victory was expected to belong.

    • 1917- Russian Imperial Army
    • 1918- Imperial German Army
    • 1944- Japanese Burma Area Army
    • 1975- South Vietnamese Army
    • 2021- Afghan National Army
    • 2024- Syrian Army

    Common factors in or causes of a collapse include logistical issues or internal disintegration.

    Another major factor in how a war goes is the motivation or objective of the participants. You can see more on this in our post, “American Example.”

    Throughout 2026 Ukraine has been hitting Russian logistics hard and I believe that the Russian logistics have become very fragile and could lead to a collapse.

    In addition the quality, training, experience, cohesiveness, and number of Russian troops have all declined.

    Another reason for military campaigns failing is a loss of financial support. The Russian economy is struggling in many ways and there is a serious question as to whether or not Putin will be able to continue funding the war. No matter how bad you want to “order” or insist that something happens, there are points at which things just cannot be sustained.

    Military collapses often seem sudden but usually if you look deeper into the circumstances they had been developing for some time.

    So here are a few additional things to consider.

    • The Russian Army is not making progress on the battlefield.
    • If you look at the land that they have taken during this war they have only taken it after totally destroying whatever was there.
    • The Russian Army has actually lost ground in some areas in 2026.
    • Putin has basically resorted to focusing on bombing cities, on killing civilians and on trying to make Ukraine inhospitable. Russia is committing war crimes every day. (There should be a universal, worldwide outcry against this.)
    • In my view one of the few things besides China, Iran and North Korea that has been propping Putin up has been US President Trump. I believe that Trump is losing his power and his leverage and will be less and less of a factor over the coming months.
    • Even if Ukraine officially walked away from the areas that Russia currently occupies, I believe that Russia is too weak to rebuild them and as such would have trouble actually controlling them. I believe that guerrila type warfare would continue. You could use other terms like an insurgency or asymmetric warfare but I believe that government assests, resources and forces would continue to be attacked.

    Is the Russian Army collapse certain to happen? No, but I would say that it is quite possible.