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TruthSage

Author: Michael

  • Advantage Ukraine

    It seems that what most analysts and pundits miss about Russia’s war against Ukraine is really core to the outcome.

    On April 30, 2025 the Hoover Institute posted an article titled, “Lack of Will Prevents Wars From Being Won.” In that article they state that, “Winning depends upon the combination of will and capability.”

    It is often the condition of the will of one party being greater than the will of the other party that will bring victory to the party with the greater will. This is often true even in cases where the party with the greater will is numerically or statistically out matched.

    Ukraine has longed for their independence, their freedom for many years. Over the past number of centuries they have been repeatedly attacked by Russia and in numerous cases Russia has prevailed for a period of time. However, the deep felt yearning to be free rarely is extinguished when one country occupies another.

    Throughout distant history as well as more recent past, Russia has perpetrated horrible atrocities against the Ukrainian people. Knowledge of that is part of what drives Ukraine’s determination.

    Ukrainians’ are fighting for their liberty, their freedom, their culture, their nation, their towns, their homeland, their identity, and to protect their loved ones, their family.

    So, the outcome of Russia’s invasion of and aggression towards Ukraine, is not a direct army versus army calculation.

    A significant factor will be the motivation, the will, of the one who wants to control versus the motivation, the will, of the one who is fighting for their freedom and, yes, even their very life.

  • Defense Agreements

    A number of Arab Gulf nations have signed air defense agreements with Ukraine.

    This has the potential to provide a much increased level of defense against the attacks from Iran.

    Because of Russia’s invasion and continuing war against Ukraine, Ukraine has had to develop weapons that enable them to counter-attack the aggressor.

    I would hope that the Arab Gulf nations are also talking to Ukraine about those weapons, like the Firepoint 1 and 2, besides the purely defensive ones like the interceptor drones. For years the Arab nations have relied upon the protection of the United States. However, with the changes in warfare over the past few years, it is our opinion that they are going to have to become more self reliant and have more self based defensive and offensive weapons systems.

    They will need to be able to defend against missiles and against drones (air, land and sea). They also will need to be able to attack Iran. They need to be able to say, “If you attack our infrastructure, if you attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, if you attack us in any way, we will retaliate. We will attack your military facilities and factories, we will attack your ships, we will attack your oil and gas infrastructure, we will take away your revenue sources, and we will attack your general infrastructure if we must.

    Until there is a true regime change in Iran, Iran will not behave of their own volition. There has to be a price that they will pay that is high enough to deter them from continuing to spread terrorism across the Gulf and beyond.

  • To Change Iran

    The Iranian government- the ayatollahs, the mullahs, and the IRGC- have been a terrorist state for almost 50 years. They came to power through terror. They terrorize their own people, other nations in the region and nations around the world. Iran’s government thinks nothing of murdering tens of thousands of their own citizens in order to maintain control and power.

    To change the government of Iran, to gain freedoms for the Iranian people, something needs to break the IRGC. One way to potentially break the IRGC is to defund them, to cut off their revenue.

    They receive tens of billions of dollars a year from oil, gas, energy systems, IRGC controlled portions of the electrical systems, and through smuggling.

    It is through this wealth that they attract people to the IRGC, are able to terrorize their own people, sponsor terrorist organizations and spread terror beyond their borders.

    Cut off their funds, defund them, and they will lose their hold on Iran.

  • Two Neighbors

    20260321

    Let’s start by considering an example scenario.

    Consider three individuals that live with their families on three adjoining lots. The lots are oversized at a third of an acre each.

    Now take on the role of the neighbor in the middle and consider this scenario.

    (I was going to try to write this with all neutral references but it was too distracting for me so I will just refer to both neighbors as males. They could be females. One could be male and the other female. For the sake of the example it does not matter.)

    The first neighbor is always friendly, waves, says hi and interacts with your kids in a positive manner. If he sees you working on a project he comes over and offers to help. You plan social events together and celebrate birthdays, etc.

    The second neighbor is not friendly. When he sees you in your yard he yells threats of one kind or another. He chases off your kids if they wander onto his driveway a little bit as they walk home past his house. He has stated that he is going to take 10 feet from the edge of your property, whether you like it or not, because he “needs” it.

    Now, let’s suppose they both ask you for a favor. Well, actually, the first neighbor comes over and asks nicely. The second neighbor yells from his yard that you better come help or he will make things difficult.

    You can fill in whatever kind of favor you want but for illustration purposes I will present one.

    Lets say that it just happens that they both hired the same roofing company to redo their roof. And that roofing company lacks a little bit in the customer service side of things and Sunday afternoon their trucks rolled up to both properties and dumped the plywood, pallets of shingles, gutters and other materials across the end of the driveways blocking any cars from getting in or out. Both of your neighbors and their wives need to get out of the driveway Monday morning to go to work. Being that it is Sunday, nobody is answering the phone at the roofing company.

    The roofing material is heavy and they need help moving it.

    Would you help either neighbor move the material? Which neighbor(s) would you help?

    I would help both. Neighbor Two I would help not because they were a friend and not because they deserved it but simply because it would be the right thing to do. Neighbor One I would help for very different and more positive and compelling reasons.

    Now, the reality is more nuanced. Here is how it would probably go down. Neighbor One and I would go over together to help Neighbor Two knowing full well that once we cleared a path on his driveway and moved over to Neighbor One’s driveway, Neighbor Two would find some excuse to not come over and help.

    The resulting reality is that for Neighbor Two we would probably move the material the minimal amount of distance to clear the narrowest path required to get a car through and he would continue to have to deal with the mess.

    For Neighbor One it would be different, I would help him figure out the best place to stage everything and move it all to that area so that it is out of the way and he does not continue to have to deal with it. The kids would probably come and do what they could to help. It would turn into a big party, we would order pizza and drinks to be delivered and we would sit out in the yard laughing and having a good time.

    Lets apply that example to the real world.

    Neighbor One is the kind of ally the United States has been for the past 75 years or so. Perfect? No, but working on maintaining good, mutually beneficial relations.

    Neighbor Two is the kind of ally the United States is today under Trump.

    Trump threatens our allies, slams them with tariffs, shouts nasty remarks calling them by disparaging names/terms and then wonders why they don’t want to help him.

    The truth is that the United States strength and standing in the world was partly a result of our alliances, of our allies. Trump just looks at dollar figures over the years and fails to recognize the many other ways that the United States also benefited.

    Trump has weakened the United States, reduced our standing in the world, and reduced our safety and security.

    Trump is supposed to be representing America’s interest. Stand up America. It is our future.

  • American Example

    20260320

    “This glorious Example of our Troops, under the like Circumstances with us, The General hopes will animate every officer, and soldier, to imitate, and even out do them, when the enemy shall make the same attempt on us: With such a bright example before us, of what can be done by brave and spirited men, fighting in defence of their Country; we shall be loaded with a double share of Shame, and Infamy, if we do not acquit ourselves with Courage, or a determined Resolution to conquer or die: With this hope and confidence, and that this Army will have its equal share of Honour, and Success….With such preparation, and a suitable Spirit, there can be no doubt, but by the blessing of Heaven, we shall repel our cruel Invaders; preserve our Country, and gain the greatest Honor.”

    The above was written by General Washington on July 21, 1776 after learning of the improbable victory of the unfinished fort on Sullivan’s Island near Charleston, SC over the formidable British navy.

    It really was the first true victory of the American Revolutionaries, the Continental Army, over the British.

    It comes from a different era, a different point in history, with vastly different technology, however, I think Washington’s words hint at an aspect of human nature that has not changed.

    I will make one nitpicking distinction before continuing. Washington states that, “we shall repel our cruel Invaders.” I understand why he would have this sentiment and make the statement, however, one could argue that the British were not invaders as they were the official government and were protecting their land. The Americans were fighting to gain their freedom.

    Consider that in contrast to Ukraine today. Ukraine was truly invaded by “cruel invaders,” the Russians, who are trying to take away their freedoms. Ukraine has had it’s independence for years. It’s borders were internationally recognized. It’s people had their freedom, achieved through sacrifice.

    I think this distinction is minor but I would argue that it would provide more incentive to Ukraine than the circumstances the Americans were in.

    So, back to the sentiment that Washington is capturing. In essence, he states that, people “fighting in defense of their Country” (and their freedom) will have the courage and determination to preserve their country, to repel their “cruel invaders” and to achieve victory!

    That is why I believe that, as long as the free nations do not abandon them, Ukraine will defeat Russia.

  • Hegseth Blame Mongering

    20260319

    The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, held a press briefing at the Pentagon on March 19. In it he inexcusably and shamefully engaged in blame mongering to try to dodge the administrations responsibilities for it’s Iran policy and actions.

    Hegseth stated, “We are still dealing with the consequences of what Joe Biden did—namely, depleting our stockpiles and sending them not to our own military, but to Ukraine,” Hegseth said.

    So he is trying to blame Biden and Ukraine for our weapons stockpiles. This administration has been in office for over a year. Plenty of time to do something about any stockpile shortage.

    In addition, while Iran has been a bad actor for almost 50 years, the US was not attacked in this case. The administration chose to execute a military confrontation. They should have analyzed and weighed resources available against resources needed before starting the action.

    In regards to Ukraine, not very much was actually given to Ukraine and much of what went to Ukraine was slated for being rotated out of service.

    In the first 3 days of the Iran engagement approximately 800 guided missiles, primarily Patriots, were used. That is more than what has been expended in Ukraine in the 4 years since 2022. During those 4 years Ukrainian cities have been being bombed on a daily basis.

    On March 4, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States has a “virtually unlimited” weapons stockpile that could allow it to “fight forever.” So, which is it? Do we have a “virtually unlimited” stockpile as Donald Trump claims or “depleted stockpiles” as Hegseth claims.

    The truth matters.

  • Lacking Clarity

    20260319

    One of the problems with Trump is that by making his statements bombastic in nature he sacrifices clarity.

    Regarding the closing of the Strait of Hormuz he said, “I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision.”

    “Reconsider this decision” does do lay out clear boundaries and consequences. Something like, “Iran must irrevocably and clearly declare the Strait of Hormuz open and that they will in no way interfere with shipping within 48 hours. If they do not make such a declaration we will start to dismantle their oil infrastructure and capacity on Kharg Island.”

    More recently Iran bombed Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG export facilities. Trump threatened Iran saying that the United States would “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field which is the portion that lies within Iran and supplies about 80% of Iran’s natural gas. This threat is after Iran’s attack on Qatar which sidelined about 12.8 million tons of LNG production annually and will take three to five years to repair.

    Trump should have clearly stated many weeks ago that attacks on Arab nations by Iran will not be tolerated and will trigger retaliatory strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure. Not the military targets that they have been focusing on but the infrastructure that provides a massive amount of revenue to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

  • Strait of Hormuz

    20260312

    Here are some thoughts regarding the current situation with the Strait of Hormuz.

    In Our Opinion:

    • Free navigation of legitimate purely commercial ships is essential to the entire international community. (Note, this does not include spy ships or military ships disguised as commercial ships or dual use military/commercial ships, or uninsured shadow fleet ships, etc. all of which are a different issue.) The interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could contribute to oil shortages, shortages of fertilizer which could lead to starvation in some countries, and shortages of other goods and materials.

    What Travels Through the Strait of Hormuz

    • Crude Oil
    • Bunker Fuel (This is the oil that fuel ships. A significant percentage comes through the Strait of Hormuz. If there becomes a shortage of Bunker Fuel it will be the poorer nations of the world that are hit the hardest.)
    • LPG/LNG (One impact of a shortage would impact electrical generation.)
    • Fertilizer

    What Iran Sends Through the Strait

    • Oil and other exports
    • This is the lifeblood of the country.
    • They also are dependent on imports that come through the Strait such as food staples

    What Does Iran Export

    • Crude oil and natural gas
    • Plastics
    • Fruits and nuts
    • Ores, slag and ash
    • Iron and Steel
    • Organic chemicals

    What Does Iran Import

    • Cereals (rice, wheat, corn) (also soybeans, barley and vegetable oils)
    • Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers
    • Electrical and electronic equipment
    • Vehicles
    • Pharmaceutical products

    General Conditions

    • Iran does not currently grow enough food to feed its people
    • Key challenges to food self-sufficiency for Iran: water scarcity, droughts, rising demand
    • Oil and gas exports are the primary source of income for Iran. Petrochemicals also contribute.
    • We have seen estimates of the amount of crude oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz as ranging from 20 to 25% of the world supply. If this is cut off it is not the rich nations of the world that are not going to be able to get oil. It will be the impoverished and developing nations that will be priced out of the market.

    What Iran Did

    • Basically Iran tried to blackmail the entire world into allowing it to continue to be a terrorist state when it threatened to close the Strait.
    • Keep in mind that Iran has been harassing shipping through the Strait for many years. Here are a few examples:
      • 2019 – limpet mine attacks
      • July 2019 – detained the Stena Impero
      • 2021 – drone strike killed two mariners
      • April 2024 – seized the MSC Aries
      • 2025 – detained a Togo-flagged tanker
      • December 2025 – detained an unnamed oil tanker
      • Between February 28 and March 11, 2026 13 attacks have been reported.
    • While effectively closing the Strait to everyone else, Iran has continued to export oil. Iran has shipped at least 11.7 million barrels of oil through the Strait to China between 02/28/2026 and 03/12/26.
    • Iran is continuing to function as a terrorist state disrupting the free commerce and trade of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and all of their trading partners.
    • Iran has directly attacked Israel, US bases, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Oman, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.

    What the US (President Trump) Should Have Done (And Should Still Immediately Do)

    • When Iran (the Islamic Republic and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) threatened to close the Strait and all shipping the US should have simply said, “The safe flow of shipping is critical to the world. You have 24 hours to declare that shipping will not be attacked and end all GPS jamming. If you attack any commercial ships anywhere (the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman) we will wipe out your ports including all facilities at the Kharg Island terminal and the Jask terminal as well as significant portions of your oil infrastructure and production capabilities. It will be decades before you are able to export any oil again.”
    • While it is true that much of the funding for the Islamic Republic and the IRGC is through illicit means, it is believed that this eliminating all Iran Oil exports would cut off much of the money/funding flowing to the Islamic Republic and IRGC.

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